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Epidemiology and Health 2018;e2018054.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2018054    [Accepted] Published online November 8, 2018.
Incidences of Varicella in Children of Jeju-do, Republic of Korea, 2005-2016: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
Jin-hee Kim1  , Ji-eun Kim1  , Jong-Myon Bae2,2 
1Jeju Center for Infection Control, Jeju, Korea
2Jeju National University School of Medicine, Jeju, Korea
Correspondence  Jong-Myon Bae ,Tel: 064-755-5567, Fax: 064-725-2593, Email: jmbae@jejunu.ac.kr
Received: September 24, 2018  Accepted after revision: November 8, 2018
Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was about 95% in Korean children, the notified numbers of varicella cases are increasing till now, unexpectedly. To suggest some hypotheses about the gap, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children resident in Jeju-do, Republic of Korea (ROK).
The raw data was the nationwide database for insurance claim of healthcare fee suggested by National Health Insurance Service, ROK. The selection criteria were children aged of 2 to 13 years taken any healthcare with varicella from 2005 to 2016 while resided in Jeju-do, ROK. After birth cohort-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) by age and year were calculated, intrinsic estimator (IE) method was applied to conduct APC analysis.
As annual CIRs were decreasing as age was increasing between 2005 and 2016, the age and period effect were decreasing in all observed years. The IE coefficients suggesting cohort effect were shifted from positive into negative in 2011 as the starting year of free varicella vaccine program in Jeju-do, ROK.
The results suggested that inoculated varicella vaccines have preventive effect. However, researches to evaluate waning immunity would be needed.
Keywords: Chickpox; Chickenpox vaccine; Cohort effect; Immunization programs; Immunization schedule; Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine
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