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Lai Chee Herng 1 Article
Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia
Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Sarbhan Singh, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Lai Chee Herng, Sarat Chandra Dass, Tahir Aris, Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim, Balvinder Singh Gill
Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021073.   Published online September 23, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021073
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AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Starting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
METHODS
Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures.
RESULTS
We found that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
The movement control measures progressively reduced the R-value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.
Summary
Korean summary
Key Message
• This study developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave (September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. • Finding from this study reports that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 and case trends were lower during the implementation of the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases • The MCO and CMCO were effective measures in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak during the third wave in Malaysia due to their higher stringency levels

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
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