epiH Search

CLOSE



Korean Journal of Epidemiology 2007;29(2): 187-199.
Development of Risk Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Disease Using Intima Media Thickness of Carotid Artery Among Community-Dwelling Elderly.
Jin Young Jeong, Kyung Soon Hong, Soong Nang Jang, Young Ho Choi, Moon Gi Choi, Sang Kon Lee, Hyun Ah Kim, Seok Won Park, Na Rae Hong, Dong Hyun Kim
Abstract
PURPOSE:
This study was performed to develop risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease using intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid artery among the community dwelling elderly.
METHODS:
Follow-up survey was conducted in 2007 to measure the IMT of carotid artery, which is known as a preclinical marker of atherosclerotic change, among participants at the baseline survey of Hallym Aging Study (HAS) in 2004. They were categorized into two groups; increased IMT > or = 0.9 mm and normal IMT < 0.9 mm. To evaluate which factors are independently related with the increased IMT, multiple logistic regression analysis was done. Based on the regression coefficients of these factors weighed by the magnitude of the effect estimates, we calculated the risk scores for increased IMT for every participants. ROC curve was plotted for the each cutoff point of risk scores and its fitness was tested using Area Under the Curve (AUC). Finally, we calculated risk ratios for the increased IMT according to the level of risk based on the risk scores.
RESULTS:
Several factors were found as related factors for the increased IMT in the multiple logistic regression: age (beta=0.15), cholesterol (beta=0.01), insulin (beta=0.13), and pulse pressure (beta=0.90) for men, and age (beta=0.08), family history of diabetes mellitus (beta=0.94) and stroke (beta=0.79), alcohol drinking (beta=0.39), and high cholesterol (beta=0.77) for women. We assigned the weighed value for each factors. The average risk scores were 14.48 (range 9.69-18.76) for men and 4.59 (range 2.41-7.48) for women. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) were 0.77 for men and 0.71 for women. We also observed the higher risk of increased IMT as the risk scores increased.
CONCLUSION:
Based on the results, we expect to predict the level of the risk for the increased IMT, which is preclinical marker for atherosclerotic change, among the elderly.
Keywords: Intima-media thickness of carotid artery; Atherosclerosis; Cardiovascular disease; Aging study
TOOLS
Share :
METRICS Graph View
  • 65,535 View
  • 24 Download


ABOUT
ARTICLE CATEGORY

Browse all articles >

BROWSE ARTICLES
FOR AUTHORS AND REVIEWERS
Editorial Office
Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine
50-1 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea
TEL: +82-2-745-0662   FAX: +82-2-764-8328    E-mail: office.epih@gmail.com

Copyright © 2022 by Korean Society of Epidemiology.

Developed in M2PI

Close layer
prev next