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Epidemiol Health > Accepted Articles
Epidemiology and Health 2021;e2021064.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021064    [Accepted] Published online Sep 8, 2021.
A hypertension risk score for adults: a population-based cross-sectional study from Dubai Household Survey 2019
Ibrahim Mahmoud1  , Nabil Sulaiman1,2  , Amal Hussein1, Heba Mohammed3,4, Wafa K. AL Nakhi3,5, Hamid Y. Hussain3, Gamal M. Ibrahim3
1College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
2Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
3Department of Data Analysis, Research and Studies, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
4Department of Family Health, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt
5Department of Community Medicine, Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Correspondence  Nabil Sulaiman ,Tel: 00971508684429, Email: nsulaiman@sharjah.ac.ae
Received: Jul 29, 2021  Accepted after revision: Sep 8, 2021
Abstract
Objectives:
To develop a risk score model for predicting hypertension specific to Dubai population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to facilitate prevention and early intervention.
Method:
A retrospective analysis of the Dubai Household Health Survey 2019 data was conducted. Demographic and physical parameters, as well as blood glucose levels, were included in the data. The risk factors for hypertension were identified using bivariate analysis. A risk score model was developed using enter method where all significant predictors of hypertension in bivariate analyses were entered in a single step with the primary outcome was hypertension status (yes/no). The model was validated internally by splitting the data into Emirati and non-Emirati populations.
Results:
A total of 2533 subjects were studied. The significant risk factors for hypertension identified were being male, older age (≥40 years), education level, body mass index, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia. The model showed a high discrimination ability between hypertensive and non-hypertensive individuals, with an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75–0.79), excellent sensitivity (81%; 95% CI 71.9–88.2) and moderate specificity (56%; 95% CI 45.7–65.9).
Conclusions:
The model developed by this study is simple, convenient and based on readily available demographic and medical characteristics. This risk score model could support initial hypertension screening and provide effective tool for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.
Keywords: Hypertension; Blood Pressure; Cardiovascular Diseases
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