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School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
© 2024, Korean Society of Epidemiology
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Conflict of interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare for this study.
Funding
This research was supported by JST SPRING (JPMJSP2110) and from Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants (20CA2024, 20HA2007, 21HB1002, 21HA2016, and 23HA2005); the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (JP23fk0108685 and JP23fk0108612); JSPS KAKENHI (21H03198 and 22K19670); the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20S11804) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, Kao Health Science Research, the Daikin GAP Fund of Kyoto University, and the Japan Science and Technology Agency SICORP program (JPMJSC20U3 and JPMJSC2105); and the RISTEX program for Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy (JPMJRS22B4).
Author contributions
Both authors contributed equally to conceiving the study, analysing the data, and writing this paper.
Model | Variables | Hokkaido | AIC | Tokyo | AIC | Aichi | AIC | Osaka | AIC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | R | 1.26 (1.24, 1.27) | 9,606.90 | 1.71 (1.69, 1.73) | 30,652.20 | 1.33 (1.31, 1.34) | 12,767.87 | 1.40 (1.38, 1.41) | 17,810.50 |
State of emergency | -0.35 (-0.38, -0.32) | -0.04 (-0.05, -0.03) | -0.46 (-0.47, -0.44) | -0.17 (-0.18, -0.16) | |||||
Raw mobility | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | |||||
Model 2 | R | 1.33 (1.31, 1.35) | 9,462.10 | 1.97 (1.94, 2.00) | 28,685.38 | 1.34 (1.33, 1.36) | 12,068.29 | 1.47 (1.45, 1.49) | 17,199.82 |
State of emergency | -0.31 (-0.34, -0.28) | 0.00 (-0.01, 0.01) | -0.40 (-0.42, -0.39) | -0.13 (-0.14, -0.12) | |||||
Adjusted mobility1 | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.02) | |||||
Model 3 | R | 1.03 (1.02 ,1.04) | 10,346.68 | 1.11 (1.11 ,1.12) | 35,187.20 | 1.10 (1.09, 1.10) | 13,793.42 | 1.12 (1.11, 1.13) | 17,851.36 |
State of emergency | -0.50 (-0.53, -0.47) | -0.17 (-0.18, -0.17) | -0.53 (-0.55, -0.52) | -0.28 (-0.29, -0.27) | |||||
Holidays | 0.17 (0.14, 0.19) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) | 0.18 (0.17, 0.20) | 0.21 (0.20, 0.22) | |||||
Model 4 | R | 1.24 (1.22, 1.26) | 9,601.80 | 1.78 (1.76, 1.80) | 29,621.44 | 1.27 (1.26, 1.28) | 12,432.13 | 1.37 (1.35, 1.39) | 16,555.76 |
State of emergency | -0.35 (-0.38, -0.32) | -0.03 (-0.04, -0.03) | -0.43 (-0.45, -0.42) | -0.18 (-0.19, -0.17) | |||||
Raw mobility | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | |||||
Holidays | 0.03 (0.01, 0.06) | 0.14 (0.14, 0.15) | 0.15 (0.13, 0.16) | 0.22 (0.21, 0.23) | |||||
Model 5 | R | 1.30 (1.28, 1.32) | 9,441.35 | 1.96 (1.93, 1.99) | 28,632.59 | 1.32 (1.30, 1.33) | 12,038.73 | 1.40 (1.38, 1.42) | 16,437.26 |
State of emergency | -0.31 (-0.34, -0.28) | 0.00 (-0.01, 0.01) | -0.40 (-0.42, -0.38) | -0.15 (-0.16, -0.14) | |||||
Adjusted mobility1 | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | |||||
Holidays | 0.06 (0.03, 0.08) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.04) | 0.05 (0.03, 0.06) | 0.17 (0.16, 0.18) |
CI, confidence interval; C3, 3-day consecutive holidays; C4, 4-day consecutive holidays; GW, Golden Week; NY, New Year, and all of these were treated as public holidays in Japan.
1 The mean estimated Rt was calculated by the sum of Rt in a holiday type divided by the number of days of the holiday; The counterfactual outcome was to set the value of the holiday variable as 0; The total number of infected cases was the total number of infected cases in all holidays in our study period.
Year | Time and period | Holiday’s name | Consecutive | Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | Feb 11 | National foundation day | No | / |
Feb 22-24 | Emperor’s birthday | Yes | C3 | |
Mar 20-22 | Vernal equinox day | Yes | C3 | |
Apr 29 | Showa day | No | / | |
May 2-6 | GW (constitution memorial day+greenery day+children’s day) | Yes | GW | |
Jul 23-26 | Marine day+sports day | Yes | C4 | |
Aug 8-10 | Mountain day | Yes | C3 | |
Aug 13-16 | Obon | Yes | C4 | |
Sep 19-22 | Respect-for-the-aged day+autumnal equinox day | Yes | C4 | |
Nov 3 | Culture day | No | / | |
Nov 21-23 | Labor thanksgiving day | Yes | C3 | |
2020-2021 | Dec 30-Jan 3 | NY | Yes | NY |
2021 | Jan 9-11 | Coming-of-age day | Yes | C3 |
Feb 11 | National foundation day | No | / | |
Feb 23 | Emperor’s birthday | No | / | |
Mar 20 | Vernal equinox day | No | / | |
Apr 29 | Showa day | No | / | |
May 1-5 | GW (constitution memorial day+greenery day+children’s day) | Yes | GW | |
Jul 22-25 | Marine day+sports day | Yes | C4 | |
Aug 7-9 | Mountain day | Yes | C3 | |
Aug 13-16 | Obon | Yes | C4 | |
Sep 18-20 | Respect-for-the-aged day | Yes | C3 | |
Sep 23 | Autumnal equinox day | No | / |
Model | Variables | Hokkaido | AIC | Tokyo | AIC | Aichi | AIC | Osaka | AIC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | R | 1.26 (1.24, 1.27) | 9,606.90 | 1.71 (1.69, 1.73) | 30,652.20 | 1.33 (1.31, 1.34) | 12,767.87 | 1.40 (1.38, 1.41) | 17,810.50 |
State of emergency | -0.35 (-0.38, -0.32) | -0.04 (-0.05, -0.03) | -0.46 (-0.47, -0.44) | -0.17 (-0.18, -0.16) | |||||
Raw mobility | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | |||||
Model 2 | R | 1.33 (1.31, 1.35) | 9,462.10 | 1.97 (1.94, 2.00) | 28,685.38 | 1.34 (1.33, 1.36) | 12,068.29 | 1.47 (1.45, 1.49) | 17,199.82 |
State of emergency | -0.31 (-0.34, -0.28) | 0.00 (-0.01, 0.01) | -0.40 (-0.42, -0.39) | -0.13 (-0.14, -0.12) | |||||
Adjusted mobility |
0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.02) | |||||
Model 3 | R | 1.03 (1.02 ,1.04) | 10,346.68 | 1.11 (1.11 ,1.12) | 35,187.20 | 1.10 (1.09, 1.10) | 13,793.42 | 1.12 (1.11, 1.13) | 17,851.36 |
State of emergency | -0.50 (-0.53, -0.47) | -0.17 (-0.18, -0.17) | -0.53 (-0.55, -0.52) | -0.28 (-0.29, -0.27) | |||||
Holidays | 0.17 (0.14, 0.19) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) | 0.18 (0.17, 0.20) | 0.21 (0.20, 0.22) | |||||
Model 4 | R | 1.24 (1.22, 1.26) | 9,601.80 | 1.78 (1.76, 1.80) | 29,621.44 | 1.27 (1.26, 1.28) | 12,432.13 | 1.37 (1.35, 1.39) | 16,555.76 |
State of emergency | -0.35 (-0.38, -0.32) | -0.03 (-0.04, -0.03) | -0.43 (-0.45, -0.42) | -0.18 (-0.19, -0.17) | |||||
Raw mobility | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | |||||
Holidays | 0.03 (0.01, 0.06) | 0.14 (0.14, 0.15) | 0.15 (0.13, 0.16) | 0.22 (0.21, 0.23) | |||||
Model 5 | R | 1.30 (1.28, 1.32) | 9,441.35 | 1.96 (1.93, 1.99) | 28,632.59 | 1.32 (1.30, 1.33) | 12,038.73 | 1.40 (1.38, 1.42) | 16,437.26 |
State of emergency | -0.31 (-0.34, -0.28) | 0.00 (-0.01, 0.01) | -0.40 (-0.42, -0.38) | -0.15 (-0.16, -0.14) | |||||
Adjusted mobility |
0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | |||||
Holidays | 0.06 (0.03, 0.08) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.04) | 0.05 (0.03, 0.06) | 0.17 (0.16, 0.18) |
Holidays | Prefectures | Mean estimated Rt (95% CI) | Mean counter-factual Rt (95% CI) | Mean differences in Rt (95% CI) | Total no. of infected cases (95% CI) | Total counterfactual no. of infected cases (95% CI) | Total differences in the no. of infected cases (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C3 | Hokkaido | 1.16 (1.13, 1.18) | 1.09 (1.08, 1.11) | 0.06 (0.04, 0.10) | 2.536 (2,481, 2,591) | 2,399 (2,371, 2,426) | 137 (55, 221) |
Tokyo | 1.20 (1.19, 1.21) | 1.16 (1.15, 1.17) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.05) | 19,513 (19,351, 19,675) | 18,909 (18,808, 19,007) | 604 (344, 867) | |
Aichi | 1.16 (1.14, 1.18) | 1.11 (1.10, 1.12) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.08) | 5,041 (4,964, 5,116) | 4,808 (4,759, 4,858) | 233 (107, 357) | |
Osaka | 1.32 (1.30, 1.33) | 1.11 (1.10, 1.12) | 0.21 (0.19, 0.23) | 9,985 (9,857, 10,113) | 8,424 (8,351, 8,498) | 1,561 (1,359, 1,763) | |
C4 | Hokkaido | 1.32 (1.29, 1.35) | 1.25 (1.23, 1.27) | 0.07 (0.04, 0.12) | 4,269 (4,180, 4,360) | 4,038 (3,972, 4,106) | 231 (75, 388) |
Tokyo | 1.04 (1.03, 1.05) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.04) | 35,352 (35,061, 35,643) | 34,258 (34,071, 34,439) | 1,094 (623, 1,572) | |
Aichi | 1.23 (1.21, 1.25) | 1.17 (1.16, 1.18) | 0.06 (0.04, 0.08) | 11,828 (11,662, 11,991) | 11,282 (11,179, 11,386) | 546 (276, 812) | |
Osaka | 1.30 (1.28, 1.32) | 1.10 (1.09, 1.10) | 0.20 (0.19, 0.23) | 15,044 (14,860, 15,227) | 12,692 (12,601, 12,783) | 2,352 (2,078, 2,626) | |
GW | Hokkaido | 0.85 (0.83, 0.88) | 0.81 (0.79, 0.82) | 0.05 (0.02, 0.08) | 2,762 (2,706, 2,821) | 2,613 (2,588, 2,638) | 149 (68, 233) |
Tokyo | 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) | 0.66 (0.66, 0.67) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.03) | 3,508 (3,478, 3,538) | 3,399 (3,380, 3,418) | 109 (60, 157) | |
Aichi | 0.97 (0.96, 0.99) | 0.93 (0.92, 0.94) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.07) | 3,496 (3,450, 3,542) | 3,335 (3,301, 3,370) | 161 (80, 241) | |
Osaka | 0.89 (0.87, 0.90) | 0.75 (0.74, 0.76) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.16) | 3,708 (3,664, 3,752) | 3,129 (3,107, 3,150) | 580 (514, 645) | |
NY | Hokkaido | 1.45 (1.42, 1.48) | 1.37 (1.34, 1.40) | 0.08 (0.05, 0.14) | 1,171 (1,145, 1,197) | 1,107 (1,086, 1,130) | 63 (15, 112) |
Tokyo | 1.27 (1.26, 1.28) | 1.23 (1.22, 1.24) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.05) | 13,020 (12,899, 13,143) | 12,617 (12,538, 12,694) | 403 (205, 605) | |
Aichi | 1.86 (1.82, 1.90) | 1.78 (1.74, 1.82) | 0.09 (0.05, 0.16) | 3,163 (3,101, 3,226) | 3,017 (2,950, 3,086) | 146 (15, 276) | |
Osaka | 1.64 (1.61, 1.66) | 1.38 (1.36, 1.40) | 0.26 (0.23, 0.30) | 4,592 (4,525, 4,661) | 3,874 (3,827, 3,922) | 718 (603, 834) | |
Total | Hokkaido | 0.06 (0.04, 0.11) | 580 (213, 954) | ||||
Tokyo | 0.03 (0.02, 0.05) | - | - | 2,209 (1,230, 3,201) | |||
Aichi | - | 0.06 (0.04, 0.10) | 1,086 (478, 1,686) | ||||
Osaka | - | - | 0.20 (0.18, 0.23) | - | - | 5,211 (4,554, 5,867) |
C3, 3-day consecutive holidays; C4, 4-day consecutive holidays; GW, Golden Week; NY, New Year, and all of these were treated as public holidays in Japan.
Values are presented as parameter (95% confidence interval). COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; AIC, Akaike information criterion; R, reproduction number. Adjusted mobility: data during holidays were removed, then imputed by linear interpolation.
CI, confidence interval; C3, 3-day consecutive holidays; C4, 4-day consecutive holidays; GW, Golden Week; NY, New Year, and all of these were treated as public holidays in Japan. The mean estimated Rt was calculated by the sum of Rt in a holiday type divided by the number of days of the holiday; The counterfactual outcome was to set the value of the holiday variable as 0; The total number of infected cases was the total number of infected cases in all holidays in our study period.