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COVID-19: Brief Communication
- Analyzing the effects of social distancing on the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using mathematical modeling
- Sunhwa Choi, Moran Ki
- Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020064. Published online September 7, 2020
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020064
- 12,675 View
- 516 Download
- 15 Web of Science
- 14 Crossref
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Abstract
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AbstractOBJECTIVES
During the 6 months since the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient was diagnosed in Korea on January 20, 2020, various prevention and control measures have been implemented according to the COVID-19 epidemic pattern. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the reproductive numbers (R) for each epidemic stage to analyze the effects of the preventive measures and to predict the COVID-19 transmission trends.METHODSWe estimated the transmission rates for each epidemic stage by fitting a COVID-19 transmission model, based on a deterministic mathematical model, to the data on confirmed cases. The effects of preventive measures such as social distancing by time period were analyzed, and the size and trends of future COVID-19 outbreaks were estimated.RESULTSThe value of R was 3.53 from February18, 2020 to February 28, 2020, and the mean R reduced to 0.45 from March 14, 2020 to April 29, 2020, but it significantly increased to 2.69 from April 30, 2020 to May13, 2020 and it was maintained at 1.03 from May 14, 2020 to July 23, 2020.CONCLUSIONSAccording to the estimated R, it had fallen to below 1 and was maintained at that level owing to the isolation of infected persons by the public health authorities and social distancing measures followed by the general public. Then, the estimated R increased rapidly as the contact among individuals increased during the long holiday period from April 30, 2020 to May 5, 2020. Thereafter, the value of R dropped, with the continued use of preventive measures but remained higher than 1.00, indicating that the COVID-19 outbreak can be prolonged and develop into a severe outbreak at any time. -
SummaryKorean summary
수학적 모델링을 통하여 코로나-19 유행양상에 따른 시기별 감염재생산수(reproductive number)를 추정하고, 시기별 방역정책의 효과를 분석하여 향후 유행의 규모와 유행 종료 시점 등을 예측하였다. 그 결과, 4월30일부터 5월5일까지의 긴 연휴 기간을 통해 사람들 간의 접촉이 증가하면서 감염재생산수가 급격히 증가하였고(4월 30일 - 5월 13일까지 평균 R=2.69), 그 후, 지속적인 방역조치로 인해 5월 14일-7월 23일까지 평균 R=1.03로 감소하였으나, 여전히 1보다 큰 값으로 나타나, 코로나-19유행이 지속되고 있으며 언제라도 다시 큰 유행으로 커질 수 있다고 예측되었다. -
Citations
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