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COVID-19: Original Article
Reconstructing a COVID-19 outbreak within a religious group using social network analysis simulation in Korea
Namje Kim, Su Jin Kang, Sangwoo Tak
Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021068.   Published online September 16, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021068
  • 8,701 View
  • 214 Download
  • 4 Web of Science
  • 4 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
We reconstructed a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak to examine how a large cluster at a church setting spread before being detected and estimate the potential effectiveness of complying with mask-wearing guidelines recommended by the government.
METHODS
A mathematical model with a social network analysis (SNA) approach was used to simulate a COVID-19 outbreak. A discrete-time stochastic simulation model was used to simulate the spread of COVID-19 within the Sarang Jeil church. A counterfactual experiment using a calibrated baseline model was conducted to examine the potential benefits of complying with a mask-wearing policy.
RESULTS
Simulations estimated a mask-wearing ratio of 67% at the time of the outbreak, which yielded 953.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 937.3 to 970.4) cases and was most consistent with the confirmed data. The counterfactual experiment with 95% mask-wearing estimated an average of 45.6 (95% CI, 43.4 to 47.9) cases with a standard deviation of 20.1. The result indicated that if the church followed government mask-wearing guidelines properly, the outbreak might have been one-twentieth the size.
CONCLUSIONS
SNA is an effective tool for monitoring and controlling outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Although our results are based on simulations and are thus limited, the precautionary implications of social distancing and mask-wearing are still relevant. Since person-to-person contacts and interactions are unavoidable in social and economic life, it may be beneficial to develop precise measures and guidelines for particular organizations or places that are susceptible to cluster outbreaks.
Summary
Korean summary
본 연구는 구조화된 확률적 네트워크 시뮬레이션모형을 이용하여 국내에서 발생했던 사랑제일교회 발 코로나19 집단 감염 사례의 일별 확진자 데이터를 설명하고자, 마스크 착용 비율 추정과 반사실적 실험을 통해 방역지침을 준수한 경우 발생할 수 있었을 확진자의 규모를 추정하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과 추정된 당시 사랑제일교회의 마스크 착용 비율은 약 67% 수준이며, 만약 참석자의 95%가 마스크를 착용한 경우 확진자 규모는 실제의 20분의 1 수준에 그쳤을 것으로 예상된다. 마스크 착용은 예방접종과 함께 코로나 감염증을 극복하기 위한 가장 효과적인 예방활동이며 가장 마지막까지 강조되어야 할 것이다.
Key Message
To better understand the transmission of COVID-19 in a church setting, a stochastic social network analysis with a focus on mask-wearing practice was constructed. The results showed that if mask-wearing were to increase from 67% (at the time of the outbreak) to 95%, the outbreak could have been one-twentieth the size. Among the many measures of non-pharmaceutical intervention which may be withdrawn, mask-wearing is still one of the most effective precautionary measure and should continue to be emphasized.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature
    Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee
    Yonsei Medical Journal.2023; 64(1): 1.     CrossRef
  • A Social Network Analysis Approach to Evaluate the Relationship Between the Mobility Network Metrics and the COVID-19 Outbreak
    Sadegh Ilbeigipour, Babak Teimourpour
    Health Services Insights.2023; 16: 117863292311738.     CrossRef
  • The effect of shortening the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling approach
    Jung Eun Kim, Heejin Choi, Minji Lee, Chang Hyeong Lee
    Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Investigation of Statistical Machine Learning Models for COVID-19 Epidemic Process Simulation: Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Gradient Boosting
    Dmytro Chumachenko, Ievgen Meniailov, Kseniia Bazilevych, Tetyana Chumachenko, Sergey Yakovlev
    Computation.2022; 10(6): 86.     CrossRef
COVID-19: Original Article
Risk of COVID-19 transmission in heterogeneous age groups and effective vaccination strategy in Korea: a mathematical modeling study
Youngsuk Ko, Jacob Lee, Yubin Seo, Eunok Jung
Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021059.   Published online September 8, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021059
  • 8,356 View
  • 148 Download
  • 4 Web of Science
  • 6 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aims to analyze the possibility and conditions of maintaining an effective reproductive number below 1 using a mathematical model.
METHODS
The total population was divided into five age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-59, 60-74, and ≥75 years). Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was used to estimate the transmission rate of each age group. Mathematical model simulation was conducted until December 31, 2021, by establishing various strategies for vaccination and social distancing without considering variants.
RESULTS
MLE results revealed that the group aged 0-17 years had a lower risk of transmission than other age groups, and the older age group had relatively high risks of infection. If 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the end of 2021, then simulations showed that even if social distancing was eased, the effective reproductive number would remain below 1 near August if it was not at the level of the third re-spreading period. However, if social distancing was eased and it reached the level of the re-spreading period, the effective reproductive number could be below 1 at the end of 2021.
CONCLUSIONS
Considering both stable and worsened situations, simulation results emphasized that sufficient vaccine supply and control of the epidemic by maintaining social distancing to prevent an outbreak at the level of the re-spreading period are necessary to minimize mortality and maintain the effective reproductive number below 1.
Summary
Korean summary
본 연구에서는 질병관리청에서 제공하는 개별 확진자 데이터에 확률통계적 방법을 적용하여 연령군 간의 감염전파 행렬을 추정하였으며 연령군을 고려한 수리모델에 적용되었다. 본 연구에서 우리는 2020년 10월부터 2021년 5월까지 한국에서의 코로나19 유행상황을 정책 구간에 따라 분석하였으며 이를 토대로 거리두기 완화 수준에 따라 거리두기 완화 상태에서도 지속적으로 유효감염재생산지수가 1보다 작아지는 시점이 달라질 수 있음을 보인다.
Key Message
In this research, we estimated age-group-specified transmission rate matrix by applying maximum likelihood estimation into individual based data which was provided by Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Our model simulation showed the moment, when the effective reproductive number is consistently below 1 even the distancing is eased, is ranged from August to the end of 2021 depending on the intensity of the social distancing during eased phase.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review
    Oscar Espinosa, Laura Mora, Cristian Sanabria, Antonio Ramos, Duván Rincón, Valeria Bejarano, Jhonathan Rodríguez, Nicolás Barrera, Carlos Álvarez-Moreno, Jorge Cortés, Carlos Saavedra, Adriana Robayo, Oscar H. Franco
    Systematic Reviews.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature
    Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee
    Yonsei Medical Journal.2023; 64(1): 1.     CrossRef
  • Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia
    Karan Thakkar, Julia Regazzini Spinardi, Jingyan Yang, Moe H. Kyaw, Egemen Ozbilgili, Carlos Fernando Mendoza, Helen May Lin Oh
    Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Effective vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 in Korea: a modeling study
    Youngsuk Ko, Kyong Ran Peck, Yae-Jean Kim, Dong-Hyun Kim, Eunok Jung
    Epidemiology and Health.2023; 45: e2023084.     CrossRef
  • Quantifying the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical and Pharmaceutical Interventions Against Covid-19 Epidemic in the Republic of Korea: Mathematical Model-Based Approach Considering Age Groups and the Delta Variant
    Youngsuk Ko, Victoria May P. Mendoza, Yubin Seo, Jacob Lee, Yeonju Kim, Donghyok Kwon, Eunok Jung, E. Augeraud, M. Banerjee, J.-S. Dhersin, A. d'Onofrio, T. Lipniacki, S. Petrovskii, Chi Tran, A. Veber-Delattre, E. Vergu, V. Volpert
    Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena.2022; 17: 39.     CrossRef
  • Dietary Behavior and Diet Quality in the Korean Adult Population by Income Level before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2019-2020)
    Hye-Min Na, Bok-Mi Jung
    The Korean Journal of Community Living Science.2022; 33(3): 397.     CrossRef
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