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COVID-19: Original Article
Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
Mei Cheng Lim, Sarbhan Singh, Chee Herng Lai, Balvinder Singh Gill, Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin, Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Cia Vei Tan, Asrul Anuar Zulkifli, Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadzri, Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus, Nur Ar Rabiah Binti Ahmad, Jeyanthi Suppiah, Kok Keng Tee, Tahir Aris, Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad
Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023093.   Published online October 17, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023093
  • 3,377 View
  • 89 Download
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
METHODS
SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS
In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS
Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
Summary
Key Message
The effectiveness of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination against the highly transmissible Delta variant remained uncertain during the initial phase of the Delta outbreak in Malaysia. The innovative use of compartmental models provided scientific evidence of the potential impact of COVID-19 vaccination in reducing COVID-19 case trends based on local epidemiological data and offered forecasts of COVID-19 case trends based on varying vaccination rates which assisted resource planning and enhanced healthcare system preparedness. This evidence played a crucial role in bolstering public confidence in vaccination efforts and assisted in the control and management of the pandemic.
COVID-19: Original Article
Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia
Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Sarbhan Singh, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Lai Chee Herng, Sarat Chandra Dass, Tahir Aris, Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim, Balvinder Singh Gill
Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021073.   Published online September 23, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021073
  • 7,454 View
  • 121 Download
  • 9 Web of Science
  • 7 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Starting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
METHODS
Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures.
RESULTS
We found that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
The movement control measures progressively reduced the R-value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.
Summary
Key Message
• This study developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave (September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. • Finding from this study reports that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 and case trends were lower during the implementation of the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases • The MCO and CMCO were effective measures in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak during the third wave in Malaysia due to their higher stringency levels

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach
    Farhad Waseel, George Streftaris, Bhuvendhraa Rudrusamy, Sarat C. Dass
    Infectious Disease Modelling.2024; 9(2): 527.     CrossRef
  • Effects of a 7-Day Pornography Abstinence Period on Withdrawal-Related Symptoms in Regular Pornography Users: A Randomized Controlled Study
    David P. Fernandez, Daria J. Kuss, Lucy V. Justice, Elaine F. Fernandez, Mark D. Griffiths
    Archives of Sexual Behavior.2023; 52(4): 1819.     CrossRef
  • MODIFIED SEIRD MODEL: A NOVEL SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH IN MODELLING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA DURING THE PRE-VACCINATION PERIOD
    Norsyahidah Zulkarnain, Nurul Farahain Mohammad, Ibrahim Shogar
    IIUM Engineering Journal.2023; 24(2): 159.     CrossRef
  • Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
    Mei Cheng Lim, Sarbhan Singh, Chee Herng Lai, Balvinder Singh Gill, Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin, Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Cia Vei Tan, Asrul Anuar Zulkifli, Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadzri, Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Nuur Hafizah Md I
    Epidemiology and Health.2023; 45: e2023093.     CrossRef
  • COVID-19 in Malaysia: Descriptive Epidemiologic Characteristics of the First Wave
    Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Sarbhan Singh, Asrul Anuar Zulkifli, Yoon Ling Cheong, Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus, Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Nadhar Ahmad Jaafar, Chee Herng Lai, Wan Noraini Wan Mohamed Noor, Norhayati Rusli, Chee Kheong Chong, Tahir Aris, Hishamsha
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(7): 3828.     CrossRef
  • Impact of immobility and mobility activities on the spread of COVID‐19: Evidence from European countries
    Louafi Bouzouina, Karima Kourtit, Peter Nijkamp
    Regional Science Policy & Practice.2022; 14(S1): 6.     CrossRef
  • Whole genome sequencing analysis of SARS-CoV-2 from Malaysia: From alpha to Omicron
    Choo Yee Yu, Sie Yeng Wong, Nancy Woan Charn Liew, Narcisse Joseph, Zunita Zakaria, Isa Nurulfiza, Hui Jen Soe, Rachna Kairon, Syafinaz Amin-Nordin, Hui Yee Chee
    Frontiers in Medicine.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef
Brief Communication
Incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Malaysia
Muhammad Radzi Abu Hassan, Ibtisam Ismail, Mohd Azri Mohd Suan, Faizah Ahmad, Wan Khamizar Wan Khazim, Zabedah Othman, Rosaida Mat Said, Wei Leong Tan, Siti Rahmah @ Noor Syahireen Mohammed, Shahrul Aiman Soelar, Nik Raihan Nik Mustapha
Epidemiol Health. 2016;38:e2016007.   Published online March 9, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2016007
  • 27,443 View
  • 574 Download
  • 27 Web of Science
  • 25 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This is the first study that estimates the incidence and mortality rate for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients in Malaysia by sex and ethnicity.
METHODS
The 4,501 patients were selected from National Cancer Patient Registry-Colorectal Cancer data. Patient survival status was cross-checked with the National Registration Department. The age-standardised rate (ASR) was calculated as the proportion of CRC cases (incidence) and deaths (mortality) from 2008 to 2013, weighted by the age structure of the population, as determined by the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the World Health Organization world standard population distribution.
RESULTS
The overall incidence rate for CRC was 21.32 cases per 100,000. Those of Chinese ethnicity had the highest CRC incidence (27.35), followed by the Malay (18.95), and Indian (17.55) ethnicities. The ASR incidence rate of CRC was 1.33 times higher among males than females (24.16 and 18.14 per 100,000, respectively). The 2011 (44.7%) CRC deaths were recorded. The overall ASR of mortality was 9.79 cases, with 11.85 among the Chinese, followed by 9.56 among the Malays and 7.08 among the Indians. The ASR of mortality was 1.42 times higher among males (11.46) than females (8.05).
CONCLUSIONS
CRC incidence and mortality is higher in males than females. Individuals of Chinese ethnicity have the highest incidence of CRC, followed by the Malay and Indian ethnicities. The same trends were observed for the age-standardised mortality rate.
Summary

Citations

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    International Journal of Molecular Sciences.2024; 25(6): 3503.     CrossRef
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