Although several causal models relevant to epidemiology have been proposed, a key question that has remained unanswered is why some people at high-risk for a particular disease do not develop the disease while some people at low-risk do develop it. The equivalence model, proposed herein, addresses this dilemma. The equivalence model provides a graphical description of the overall effect of risk and protective factors at the individual level. Risk factors facilitate the occurrence of the outcome (the development of disease), whereas protective factors inhibit that occurrence. The equivalence model explains how the overall effect relates to the occurrence of the outcome. When a balance exists between risk and protective factors, neither can overcome the other; therefore, the outcome will not occur. Similarly, the outcome will not occur when the units of the risk factor(s) are less than or equal to the units of the protective factor(s). In contrast, the outcome will occur when the units of the risk factor(s) are greater than the units of the protective factor(s). This model can be used to describe, in simple terms, causal inferences in complex situations with multiple known and unknown risk and protective factors. It can also justify how people with a low level of exposure to one or more risk factor(s) may be affected by a certain disease while others with a higher level of exposure to the same risk factor(s) may remain unaffected.
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Establishment of criteria of causal relationship was also established in the process of investigation of the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. Smoking is most common cause attributable to lung cancers in most of the world. It is also responsible for the many cancers, including larynx, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, pancreas, kidney, stomach, liver, and myeloid leukemia; and cardiovascular disorders, respiratory disorders, and other degenerative disorders. Passive (or environmental tobacco) smoking has also been found to be hazardous. Establishment of causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer has been a landmark in the development of epidemiologic methods and concepts, which played the key role in the evaluation of risk factors and preventive intervention on the chronic degenerative disorders.
Standardized incidence rates have been widely used for comparing incidence patterns between populations, adjusting for differences in demographic structure. These rates can compare overall incidence levels, but to fully understand incidence patterns, an index which links incidence with age is also needed. The authors proposed a statistical method for estimating population-adjusted mean age of incidence (PAMA), based on Poisson distribution and Fieller's theorem.
The index was applied with several modifications to data relating to the incidence of breast cancer among Caucasian women living in Los Angeles.