Epidemiology and Health

Original Articles

Life expectancy of HIV-positive patients after diagnosis in Iran from 1986 to 2016: A retrospective cohort study at national and sub-national levels: Mohammad Mirzaei, Maryam Farhadian, Jalal Poorolajal, Parvin Afasr Kazerooni, Katayoun Tayeri, Younes Mohammadi; Epidemiol Health. 2018;40:e2018053. Published online November 7, 2018; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2018053

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES
Little is known about the life expectancy of individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Iran. This study therefore aimed to estimate the life expectancy of HIV-positive patients in Iran.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the Death Registration System. We included patients aged 20 years and older who had a specified date of diagnosis. We estimated life expectancy and its 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Chiang’s methodology.

RESULTS

The overall life expectancy at the national level was 23.1 years (95% CI, 22.6 to 23.5). Life expectancy was 21.6 years (95% CI, 21.1 to 22.0) for men and 32.7 years (95% CI, 31.4 to 34.0) for women. The life expectancy of patients who did or did not receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 37.0 years (95% CI, 36.2 to 37.8) and 15.5 years (95% CI, 15.1 to 15.9), respectively. The life expectancy of patients with or without tuberculosis (TB) was 21.6 years (95% CI, 20.4 to 22.9) and 36.5 years (95% CI, 35.7 to 37.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The life expectancy of Iranian HIV-positive patients was found to be very low. To improve their longevity, improvements in ART coverage and the control and treatment of TB are advised.

Summary

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Factors related to baseline CD4 cell counts in HIV/AIDS patients: comparison of poisson, generalized poisson and negative binomial regression models
Maryam Farhadian, Younes Mohammadi, Mohammad Mirzaei, Nasrin Shirmohammadi-Khorram
BMC Research Notes.2021;[Epub] CrossRef
Experiences of patients with primary HIV diagnosis in Kermanshah-Iran regarding the nature of HIV/AIDS: A qualitative study
Fatemeh Gh.Barkish, Rostam Jalali, Amir Jalali
Heliyon.2019; 5(8): e02278. CrossRef

Estimation of the Frequency of Intravenous Drug Users in Hamadan City, Iran, Using the Capture-recapture Method: Salman Khazaei, Jalal Poorolajal, Hossein Mahjub, Nader Esmailnasab, Mohammad Mirzaei; Epidemiol Health. 2012;34:e2012006. Published online October 31, 2012; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih/e2012006

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Abstract PDF

Abstract

<sec><title>OBJECTIVES</title>The number of illicit drug users is prone to underestimation. This study aimed to use the capture-recapture method as a statistical procedure for measuring the prevalence of intravenous drug users (IDUs) by estimating the number of unknown IDUs not registered by any of the registry centers.</sec><sec><title>METHODS</title>This study was conducted in Hamadan City, the west of Iran, in 2012. Three incomplete data sources of IDUs, with partial overlapping data, were assessed including: (a) Volunteer Counseling and Testing Centers (VCTCs); (b) Drop in Centers (DICs); and (c) Outreach Teams (ORTs). A log-linear model was applied for the analysis of three-sample capture-recapture results. Two information criteria were used for model selection including Akaike's Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion.</sec><sec><title>RESULTS</title>Out of 1,478 IDUs registered by three centers, 48% were identified by VCTCs, 32% by DICs, and 20% by ORTs. After exclusion of duplicates, 1,369 IDUs remained. According to our findings, there were 9,964 (95% CI, 6,088 to 17,636) IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Hence, the real number of IDUs is expected to be 11,333. Based on these findings, the overall completeness of the three data sources was around 12% (95% CI, 7% to 18%).</sec><sec><title>CONCLUSION</title>There was a considerable number of IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful and practical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the results must be interpreted with caution.</sec>

Summary

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

The prevalence of opioid use disorder in Kentucky’s counties: A two-year multi-sample capture-recapture analysis
Katherine Thompson, Joshua A. Barocas, Chris Delcher, Jungjun Bae, Lindsey Hammerslag, Jianing Wang, Redonna Chandler, Jennifer Villani, Sharon Walsh, Jeffery Talbert
Drug and Alcohol Dependence.2023; 242: 109710. CrossRef
Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Worker Population in Tehran, Iran: Application of Direct Capture–Recapture Method
Manoochehr Karami, Salman Khazaei, Jalal Poorolajal, Alireza Soltanian, Mansour Sajadipoor
AIDS and Behavior.2017; 21(8): 2394. CrossRef
Using the capture-recapture method to estimate the human immunodeficiency virus-positive population
Jalal Poorolajal, Younes Mohammadi, Farzad Farzinara
Epidemiology and Health.2017; 39: e2017042. CrossRef
Estimation of perinatal mortality rate for institutional births in Rajasthan state, India, using capture–recapture technique
Prem K Mony, Beena Varghese, Tinku Thomas
BMJ Open.2015; 5(3): e005966. CrossRef
Estimating the size of the population of persons who inject drugs in the island of Montréal, Canada, using a six-source capture–recapture model
Pascale Leclerc, Alain C. Vandal, Aïssatou Fall, Julie Bruneau, Élise Roy, Suzanne Brissette, Chris Archibald, Nelson Arruda, Carole Morissette
Drug and Alcohol Dependence.2014; 142: 174. CrossRef
Heterogeneity and behavioral response in continuous time capture–recapture, with application to street cannabis use in Italy
Alessio Farcomeni, Daria Scacciatelli
The Annals of Applied Statistics.2013;[Epub] CrossRef

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