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COVID-19: Original Article
Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea
Soyoung Kim, Yu Bin Seo, Eunok Jung
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020026.   Published online April 13, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020026
  • 20,490 View
  • 1,293 Download
  • 46 Web of Science
  • 46 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Since the report of the first confirmed case in Daegu on February 18, 2020, local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea has continued. In this study, we aimed to identify the pattern of local transmission of COVID-19 using mathematical modeling and predict the epidemic size and the timing of the end of the spread.
METHODS
We modeled the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea by applying a mathematical model of transmission that factors in behavioral changes. We used the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data of daily confirmed cases in the country to estimate the nationwide and Daegu/Gyeongbuk area-specific transmission rates as well as behavioral change parameters using a least-squares method.
RESULTS
The number of transmissions per infected patient was estimated to be about 10 times higher in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area than the average of nationwide. Using these estimated parameters, our models predicts that about 13,800 cases will occur nationwide and 11,400 cases in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area until mid-June.
CONCLUSIONS
We mathematically demonstrate that the relatively high per-capita rate of transmission and the low rate of changes in behavior have caused a large-scale transmission of COVID-19 in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area in Korea. Since the outbreak is expected to continue until May, non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be sustained over the long term are required.
Summary
Korean summary
본 논문은 행동변화를 고려한 수학적 모델을 이용하여 코로나바이러스병-19의 유행 양상을 분석하고 총 환자수와 유행기간을 예측하고자 한다. 질병관리본부 확진자 데이터를 이용하여 전국과 대구·경북 지역의 감염전파율과 행동변화율을 추정하였다. 3월 10일까지의 데이터를 기준으로 전국적으로 6월 중순까지 약 13,000명, 대구·경북지역의 경우 5월 말까지 약 11,000명의 환자가 발생할 것으로 예측된다.

Citations

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    Hafeez Aderinsayo Adekola, Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle, Haneefat Olabimpe Egberongbe, Sefiu Adekunle Onitilo, Idris Nasir Abdullahi
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    Kalliu Carvalho Couto, Flora Moura Lorenzo, Marco Tagliabue, Marcelo Borges Henriques, Roberta Freitas Lemos
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Brief Communication
Effect of premature rupture of membranes on preterm labor: a case-control study in Cilegon, Indonesia
Ita Marlita Sari, Asri C. Adisasmita, Sabarinah Prasetyo, Dwirani Amelia, Ratih Purnamasari
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020025.   Published online April 10, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020025
  • 12,946 View
  • 284 Download
  • 3 Web of Science
  • 6 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The global prevalence of preterm labor is approximately 11.1% of live births. However, preterm labor contributes to 75-80% of neonatal morbidity and mortality. The morbidity experienced by preterm infants may continue to influence their subsequent development, imposing physical, psychological, and economic burdens. Premature rupture of membranes (PROM) is a causal factor that may affect preterm birth. Previous studies have shown an association between PROM and preterm labor, but this association should be investigated in more diverse populations. Therefore, this study was conducted in Cilegon, Indonesia to determine the magnitude of the risk of preterm labor associated with PROM at Cilegon Hospital from July 2014 to December 2015.
METHODS
This case-control study used data from patients’ medical records. The cases were all mothers who delivered at less than 37 weeks of gestation, while the control population comprised all mothers who delivered at greater or equal to 37 weeks. The data were analyzed using logistic regression.
RESULTS
The bivariate analysis yielded an odds ratio (OR) of 2.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92 to 4.59) before controlling for covariates. The model derived through multiple regression analysis after controlling for education, history of preterm labor, and anemia resulted in an OR of 2.58 (95% CI, 1.68 to 3.98).
CONCLUSIONS
Mothers who experience PROM during pregnancy were at a 2.58 times higher risk of preterm labor after controlling for education, history of preterm labor, and anemia.
Summary

Citations

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  • Determinants of prematurity in urban Indonesia: a meta-analysis
    Putri Maharani Tristanita Marsubrin, Naufal Arkan Abiyyu Ibrahim, Mohammad Adya Firmansha Dilmy, Yulia Ariani, Budi Wiweko, Rima Irwinda, Achmad Kemal Harzif, Badriul Hegar, Ray Wagiu Basrowi
    Journal of Perinatal Medicine.2024; 52(3): 270.     CrossRef
  • Experience in the use of immunochromatographic test of insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 in the diagnosis of premature rupture of fetal membranes
    S.V. Barinov, T.V. Kadtsyna, Yu.I. Tirskaya, O.V. Lazareva, Yu.I. Chulovskii, I.N. Zyryanova, O.Yu. Zhivotchenko, M.B. Kazakova, A.D. Orlitskaya
    Rossiiskii vestnik akushera-ginekologa.2024; 24(1): 6.     CrossRef
  • Maternal low and high hemoglobin concentrations and associations with adverse maternal and infant health outcomes: an updated global systematic review and meta-analysis
    Melissa F. Young, Brietta M. Oaks, Hannah Paige Rogers, Sonia Tandon, Reynaldo Martorell, Kathryn G. Dewey, Amanda S. Wendt
    BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • High Apoptotic Index in Amniotic Membrane of Pregnant Women is A Risk Factor for Preterm Labor
    Anak Agung Gede Putra Wiradnyana, Anak Agung Ngurah Jaya Kusuma, Anak Agung Ngurah Anantasika, I Made Darmayasa, Ryan Saktika Mulyana, Gde Bagus Rizky Kornia
    European Journal of Medical and Health Sciences.2023; 5(3): 79.     CrossRef
  • A Prospective Cohort Study of Etiology and Neonatal Outcome of Preterm Labor in a Tertiary-care Hospital Attached to a Medical College
    NS Sreedevi, Srijana Mathai, Rachel Mathew, Suja M Mani
    Journal of South Asian Federation of Obstetrics and Gynaecology.2022; 14(3): 253.     CrossRef
  • A Scoping Review of Preterm Births in Sub-Saharan Africa: Burden, Risk Factors and Outcomes
    Adam Mabrouk, Amina Abubakar, Ezra Kipngetich Too, Esther Chongwo, Ifedayo M. Adetifa
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(17): 10537.     CrossRef
Methods
Equivalence model: A new graphical model for causal inference
Jalal Poorolajal
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020024.   Published online April 9, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020024
  • 11,262 View
  • 197 Download
  • 8 Web of Science
  • 5 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
Although several causal models relevant to epidemiology have been proposed, a key question that has remained unanswered is why some people at high-risk for a particular disease do not develop the disease while some people at low-risk do develop it. The equivalence model, proposed herein, addresses this dilemma. The equivalence model provides a graphical description of the overall effect of risk and protective factors at the individual level. Risk factors facilitate the occurrence of the outcome (the development of disease), whereas protective factors inhibit that occurrence. The equivalence model explains how the overall effect relates to the occurrence of the outcome. When a balance exists between risk and protective factors, neither can overcome the other; therefore, the outcome will not occur. Similarly, the outcome will not occur when the units of the risk factor(s) are less than or equal to the units of the protective factor(s). In contrast, the outcome will occur when the units of the risk factor(s) are greater than the units of the protective factor(s). This model can be used to describe, in simple terms, causal inferences in complex situations with multiple known and unknown risk and protective factors. It can also justify how people with a low level of exposure to one or more risk factor(s) may be affected by a certain disease while others with a higher level of exposure to the same risk factor(s) may remain unaffected.
Summary

Citations

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  • The role of problem-solving skills in the prevention of suicidal behaviors: A systematic review and meta-analysis
    Nahid Darvishi, Mehran Farhadi, Bita Azmi-Naei, Jalal Poorolajal, Humayun Kabir
    PLOS ONE.2023; 18(10): e0293620.     CrossRef
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    Bushra Zareie, Mohammad Aziz Rasouli, Jalal Poorolajal
    Breast Cancer.2022; 29(2): 361.     CrossRef
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    Fatemeh Shahbazi, Mina Morsali, Jalal Poorolajal
    Cancer Epidemiology.2021; 75: 102024.     CrossRef
  • Factors for the Primary Prevention of Breast Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies
    Jalal Poorolajal, Fatemeh Heidarimoghis, Manoochehr Karami, Zahra Cheraghi, Fatemeh Gohari-Ensaf, Fatemeh Shahbazi, Bushra Zareie, Pegah Ameri, Fatemeh Sahraei
    Journal of Research in Health Sciences.2021; 21(3): e00520.     CrossRef
  • The Epidemiology of Aggression and Associated Factors among Iranian Adult Population: A National Survey
    Jalal Poorolajal, Bahram Ebrahimi, Forouzan Rezapur-Shahkolai, Amin Doosti-Irani, Mahnaz Alizadeh, Jamal Ahmadpoor, Leila Moradi, Azam Biderafsh, Fateme Nikbakht, Zakie Golmohammadi, Ehsan Sarbazi, Samira Bahadivand, Marzieh Jahani Sayad Noveiri, Maryam R
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Original Articles
Associations between chronic conditions and oral health services utilization in older Peruvian adults: a pooled analysis of the Demographic and Health Survey 2015-2017
Diego Azañedo, Diego Chambergo-Michilot, Akram Hernández-Vásquez
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020023.   Published online April 9, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020023
  • 12,621 View
  • 268 Download
AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study was conducted to investigate the associations between chronic conditions (CCs) and oral health services utilization (OHSU) within the previous 6 months in older Peruvian adults (defined as those 60 years of age or more according to Peruvian law).
METHODS
An analytical cross-sectional study was performed based on the 2015-2017 Peruvian Demographic and Family Health Survey. Pooled data from 13,699 older adults were analyzed. A logistic regression model was used to analyze the associations between OHSU (dependent variable) and CCs (independent variables). Tobacco consumption, obesity, educational level, age, sex, welfare quintile, area of residence, having health insurance, and natural region of residence were included as covariates in the analysis.
RESULTS
The frequency of OHSU in older adults was 18.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.8 to 19.3). The highest percentage point (%p) differences with regards to OHSU were found between the extreme categories of educational level (higher education vs. none or elementary school: +24.8%p) and welfare quintile (richest vs. poorest: +24.0%p). In the crude model, OHSU was associated with diabetes (odds ratio [OR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.69), but this association disappeared after adjustment for covariates. Meanwhile, depression decreased the likelihood of OHSU (OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.95) in the adjusted model.
CONCLUSIONS
The frequency of OHSU was low in older Peruvian adults. Regarding CCs, we found that depression independently decreased the likelihood of OHSU in the adjusted model. Our results may be useful for the development of policies aimed at achieving greater OHSU in older adults with CCs, especially in those with depression.
Summary
Relationship between the experience of online game genre and high risk of Internet gaming disorder in Korean adolescents
Hyunho Han, Hyunsuk Jeong, Sun-Jin Jo, Hye Jung Son, Hyeon Woo Yim
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020016.   Published online April 7, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020016
  • 57,118 View
  • 294 Download
  • 10 Web of Science
  • 11 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study examined the association between high risk of Internet gaming disorder (IGD) and online game genres used by adolescents.
METHODS
The data derived from the baseline data of the Internet user Cohort for Unbiased Recognition of gaming disorder in Early Adolescence. A total 1,532 middle school students who use online games included. The participants reported the names of the online games they used during the past year. Game genres were categorized into role playing games (RPGs), shooting, multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA), simulation, arcade, sports and action games. The risk of IGD was measured using the Internet Gaming Use-Elicited symptom Screen. The relationship between the experience of online game genre and high risk of IGD was analyzed using multiple logistic regression model.
RESULTS
The game time of a student was longer if he or she had an experience of RPGs, shooting games, MOBA games, simulation games, and action games. The direct and independent association between high risk of IGD in adolescents and the genres of RPGs, simulation games and MOBA were found to be odds ratios 1.52 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 2.26); 1.59 (95% CI, 1.03 to 2.45); and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.03 to 2.21), respectively after adjusted the potential confounding variables and the use of other online game genres.
CONCLUSIONS
The present cross-sectional study has found an association between online game genres and the risk of IGD in adolescents attending a school. A cohort study should verify the causal association in future.
Summary
Korean summary
본 연구에서는 전향적 코호트 연구인 iCURE의 기저시점에 등록된 2,319명 중, 연구목적상 필요한 중학생 1,532명의 자료를 활용하여 온라인 게임장르 이용경험과 인터넷게임장애 위험의 연관성을 살펴보았다. 이는 추후, 온라인 게임장애의 위험요인을 규명하는 연구에 기초자료를 제시하는데 목적을 두었다. 이에, 롤플레잉게임, 시뮬레이션게임, MOBA의 이용경험이 있는 자는 인터넷게임장애 고위험자가 될 가능성이 각각 1.52배, 1.59배, 1.51배 높은 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 추후, 청소년들이 이용하는 온라인 게임장르와 인터넷게임장애의 관련성을 알아보기 위한 관찰연구에서, 위험요인이 되는 장르로 롤플레잉게임과 시뮬레이션게임, MOBA 장르에 주목할 필요성이 있다. 또한, 대상자들의 연령수준과 해당 시점에 유행적인 요소의 파악이 필요할 것이다.

Citations

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Systematic Review
Food frequency questionnaires developed and validated in Iran: a systematic review
Arezoo Rezazadeh, Nasrrin Omidvar, Katherine L. Tucker
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020015.   Published online March 30, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020015
  • 12,965 View
  • 288 Download
  • 11 Web of Science
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
To systematically review and identify food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) developed for the Iranian population and their validation and reproducibility in order to determine possible research gaps and needs.
METHODS
Studies were selected by searching for relevant keywords in the PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Google Scholar, SID, and Iranmedex databases, unpublished data, and theses in November 2016 (updated in September 2019). All English-language and Persian-language papers were included. Duplicates, articles with unrelated content, and articles only containing a protocol were excluded. The FFQs were categorized based on: (1) number of food items in to short (≤80 items) and long (>80 items) and; (2) the aim of the FFQ to explore total consumption pattern/nutrients (general) or to detect specific nutrient(s)/food group(s) (specialized).
RESULTS
Sixteen reasonably validated questionnaires were identified. However, only 13 presented a reproducibility assessment. Ten FFQs were categorized as general (7 long, 3 short) and 6 as specialized (3 long, 3 short). The correlation coefficients for nutrient intake between dietary records or recalls and FFQs were 0.07-0.82 for long (general: 0.07-0.82 and specialized: 0.26-0.67) and 0.20-0.67 for short (general: 0.24-0.54 and specialized: 0.20-0.42) FFQs. Long FFQs showed higher validity and reproducibility than short FFQs. Reproducibility of FFQs was acceptable (0.32-0.89). The strongest correlations were reported by studies with shorter intervals between FFQs.
CONCLUSIONS
FFQs designed for the Iranian population appear to be appropriate tools for dietary assessment. Despite their acceptable reproducibility, their validity for assessing specific nutrients and their applicability for populations other than those they were developed for may be questionable.
Summary

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COVID-19: Editorial
WHO International Health Regulations Emergency Committee for the COVID-19 outbreak
Youngmee Jee
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020013.   Published online March 19, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020013
  • 24,173 View
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
To discuss whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), World Health Organization (WHO) organized the 15-member International Health Regulations Emergency Committee (EC). On January 22-23 and January 30, 2020, EC convened and discussed whether the situation in China and other countries would constitute PHEIC and issued recommendations for WHO, China and the international community. Based on the recommendations of EC, WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a PHEIC. One of the purposes of the declaration of PHEIC was to alarm countries with weak public health infrastructures to prepare promptly for emerging infectious diseases (EID) and provide WHO with a framework for proactively supporting those countries. On February 3, 2020, WHO proposed the 2019 COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan, which includes accelerating research and development (R&D) processes as one of three major strategies. On February 11-12, 2020, WHO held the Global Research and Innovation Forum: Towards a Research Roadmap for COVID-19. The fact that a COVID-19 R&D forum was the first meeting convened after the PHEIC declaration testifies to the importance of R&D in response to EID. Korea has demonstrated a remarkable capacity in its laboratory response by conducting high-throughput COVID-19 testing and utilizing innovative drive-through samplings. These measures for early detection and screening of cases should be followed by full efforts to produce research-based evidence by thoroughly analyzing epidemiological, clinical and immunological data, which will facilitate the development of vaccines and therapeutics for COVID-19. It is expected that Korea plays a global partner for COVID-19 research by actively participating in immediate and mid/long-term priorities jointly led by WHO and global partners.
Summary
Korean summary
WHO는 COVID-19 유행이 국제보건규약(IHR)이 규정하는 국제공중보건위기상황(PHEIC)임을 선포했다. PHEIC의 선포는 신종감염병 연구개발을 가속화하는 기회가 되며, 대한민국도 COVID-19 연구개발을 위한 글로벌 노력에 더욱 적극적으로 참여하여야 한다.

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Original Article
Lifestyle-related predictors affecting prediabetes and diabetes in 20-30-year-old young Korean adults
Kyong Sil Park, Seon Young Hwang
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020014.   Published online March 19, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020014
  • 12,339 View
  • 279 Download
  • 4 Web of Science
  • 6 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
To investigate lifestyle-related predictors of prediabetes and diabetes in young adults aged 20–39 years using data from the 2014-2016 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES).
METHODS
This study is a cross-sectional, secondary analysis using the KNHANES data. Participants were classified into normal group (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] <100 mg/dL and/or hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] <5.7%), prediabetes group (FPG 100-125 mg/dL and/or HbA1c 5.7-6.4%), and diabetes group (FPG ≥126 mg/dL and/or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%). The data were statistically analyzed using SPSS software.
RESULTS
Out of 4,190 participants, 27.7% of men and 16.3% of women were in the prediabetes group and 1.4% of men and 1.3% of women were in the diabetes group. Logistic regression confirmed that age and obesity are predictors of prediabetes and diabetes in both men and women. Additionally low physical activity and low education level are predictors of prediabetes in men and women, respectively (p<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
This study has found that age and increased obesity are predictors of elevated blood glucose in young men and women in their 20s and 30s. A strategy to lower obesity by promoting physical activity in men in their 30s is essential to prevent metabolic syndrome and progression to prediabetes.
Summary
Korean summary
20-30대 젊은 성인 남성에서 당뇨전단계 27.7%, 당뇨 1.4%, 여성에서 당뇨전단계 16.4%, 당뇨 1.3%로 확인되었다. 당뇨전단계 및 당뇨의 이환을 예방하기 위해서 비만 관리가 필수적이며, 특히 교육수준이 낮은 젊은 여성과 신체활동이 낮은 30대의 남성에서 신체활동 증진을 통해 효율적으로 비만도를 낮추는 전략 마련이 필요함을 확인하였다.

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Brief Communication
Effects of particulate air pollution on tuberculosis development in seven major cities of Korea from 2010 to 2016: methodological considerations involving long-term exposure and time lag
Honghyok Kim, Sarah Yu, Hongjo Choi
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020012.   Published online March 12, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020012
  • 11,188 View
  • 226 Download
  • 18 Web of Science
  • 17 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Epidemiological evidence of associations between ambient particulate matter (PM) and tuberculosis (TB) risk is accumulating. Two previous studies in Korea found associations between air pollution—especially sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>)—and TB. In this study, we conducted an annual time-series cross-sectional study to assess the effect of PM with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM<sub>10</sub>) on TB risk in seven major cities of Korea from 2010 to 2016, taking into account time lag and long-term cumulative exposure.
METHODS
Age-standardized TB notification rates were derived using the Korea National TB Surveillance System. Annual average PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations were obtained from annual Korean air quality reports. We applied a generalized linear mixed model with unconstrained distributed lags of exposure to PM<sub>10</sub>. We adjusted for potential confounders such as age, health behaviors, and area-level characteristics.
RESULTS
Both average annual PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations and age-standardized TB notification rates decreased over time. The association between cumulative exposure to PM<sub>10</sub> and TB incidence became stronger as a longer exposure duration was considered. An increase of one standard deviation (5.63 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) in PM<sub>10</sub> exposure for six years was associated with a 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.22) times higher TB notification rate. The marginal association of exposure duration with the TB notification rate was highest at four and five years prior to TB notification. This association remained consistent even after adjusting it for exposure to SO<sub>2</sub>.
CONCLUSIONS
The findings of this study suggest that cumulative exposure to PM<sub>10</sub> may affect TB risk, with a potential lag effect.
Summary
Korean summary
국외 연구에서 미세먼지와 결핵발생의 관련성이 종종 보고되지만, 기존의 국내 연구에서는 관련성이 없는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 미세먼지 노출의 누적효과와 결핵발생과의 시차에 주목하여 수행했다. 연구결과 미세먼지의 누적 노출 효과가 시간적 격차는 결핵발생률과 관련이 확인되었으며, 향후 연구에서도 이와 같은 방법론적 고려가 필요하겠다

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COVID-19: Original Article
Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea
Sunhwa Choi, Moran Ki
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020011.   Published online March 12, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020011
  • 41,696 View
  • 3,283 Download
  • 149 Web of Science
  • 138 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Since the first novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient in Korea was diagnosed on January 20, 2020, 30 patients were diagnosed until February 17, 2020. However, 5,298 additional patients were confirmed until March 4, 2020. Therefore, our objective was to estimate the reproduction number (<i>R</i>) and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures.
METHODS
A COVID-19 transmission model (SEIHR) was established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of daily confirmed cases in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (NGP), the main area of outbreak, was used. The first patient’ symptom onset date in the Daegu/NGP outbreak was assumed as January 22, 2020. The <i>R</i> according to the start date of the effect of preventive measures was estimated.
RESULTS
The estimated <i>R</i> in Hubei Province, China, was 4.0281, whereas the estimated initial <i>R</i> in Korea was 0.555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.472 and 3.543. When the transmission period decreases from 4-day to 2-day, the outbreak ends early, but the peak of the epidemic increases, and the total number of patients does not change greatly. It was found that, if transmission rate decreases, the outbreak ends early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreases.
CONCLUSIONS
To end the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing and wearing masks, are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through the efforts of the quarantine authorities.
Summary
Korean summary
수학적 모델링을 통하여 코로나-19 감염재생산수( R )와 대구, 경북의 유행 규모와 유행 종료 시점 등을 예측해보았다. 그 결과 중국 후베이성의 R=4, 한국 초기 30일간의 유행은 R=0.5, 대구/경북의 3월 4일까지의 유행은 R=3.5 수준으로 나타났다. 하지만 방역당국의 적극적인 코로나-19검사로 환자들의 감염전파기간이 짧아지고, 국민들의 마스크 쓰기, 사회적 거리두기 등의 감염 예방조치 적극 참여로 전파율이 낮아져 5월 1일경에 하루 환자 1명 수준으로 예측되었다.

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Cohort Profile
Cohort profile: the Kisalaya cohort of mother-infant dyads in rural south India (2008-2012)
Smitha Chandrashekarappa, Krupa Modi, Karl Krupp, Kavitha Ravi, Anisa Khan, Vijaya Srinivas, Poornima Jaykrishna, Anjali Arun, Murali Krishna, Purnima Madhivanan
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020010.   Published online March 11, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020010
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
The <i>Kisalaya</i> cohort was established in 2008, providing integrated antenatal care (ANC) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing in order to reduce adverse birth outcomes and pediatric HIV infections. The program used a mobile clinic model to deliver health education, ANC, and HIV/sexually transmitted infection testing and management to pregnant women in rural communities in southern India. This cohort includes pregnant women residing in 144 villages of the Mysuru <i>taluk (a rural region) who received ANC through the mobile clinic and delivered their infants between 2008 and 2011. Of the 1,940 women registered for ANC at primary healthcare centers during this time period, 1,675 (75.6%) were enrolled in the <i>Kisalaya</i> cohort. Once women enrolled in the <i>Kisalaya</i> cohort gave birth, the cohort expanded to include the mother-infant dyads with a retention rate of 100% at follow-up visits at 15 days and at 6 months post-delivery. The baseline data collected during the <i>Kisalaya</i> study included both questionnaire-based data and laboratory-based investigations. Presently, a study entitled “<i>Early life influences on adolescent mental health: a life course study of the Kisalaya birth cohort in south India</i>” is in the process of data collection (2019-2020).
Summary

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  • Vulnerability to Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) / Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among adolescent girls and young women in India: A rapid review
    Sohini Paul, Anupam Sharma, Radhika Dayal, Mahika Mehta, Sudeshna Maitra, Kuhika Seth, Monal Nagrath, Sowmya Ramesh, Niranjan Saggurti, Ajoke Basirat Akinola
    PLOS ONE.2024; 19(2): e0298038.     CrossRef
Original Articles
Impact of secondhand smoke exposure in former smokers on their subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: evidence from the population-based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study
Masoumeh Sadeghi, Maryam S. Daneshpour, Soheila Khodakarim, Amir Abbas Momenan, Mahdi Akbarzadeh, Hamid Soori
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020009.   Published online March 8, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020009
  • 12,996 View
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  • 7 Web of Science
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Cigarette smoking is an established, strong, and modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, little research has investigated CHD risk in former smokers who continue to be exposed to others’ cigarette smoke (former & secondhand smokers).
METHODS
In the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, a prospective population-based cohort (n=20,069) was followed up for a median period of 14.6 years. A subset of 8,050 participants of 30 years of age and older was analyzed, with first CHD events as the study outcome. Participants were categorized as never, former, current, secondhand, and former & secondhand smokers. Data on smoking intensity (cigarette/d) were also collected. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to estimate the risk of CHD, taking into account the main potential confounders.
RESULTS
The mean age of participants was 46.10 ±11.38 years, and they experienced 1,118 first CHD events (with most CHD cases in former smokers) during the follow-up period. The risk of CHD was highest in current smokers, followed in order by former & secondhand, former, and secondhand smokers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65 to 2.39; HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.08; HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.72; HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.51, respectively), compared to never smokers. The risk of CHD increased with smoking intensity, which has been proposed as a preferable measure of smoking, indicating a dose-response pattern.
CONCLUSIONS
The elevated risk of CHD in former & secondhand smokers was a noteworthy finding, with possible implications for health policy; however, further research is needed.
Summary

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  • Health effects associated with exposure to secondhand smoke: a Burden of Proof study
    Luisa S. Flor, Jason A. Anderson, Noah Ahmad, Aleksandr Aravkin, Sinclair Carr, Xiaochen Dai, Gabriela F. Gil, Simon I. Hay, Matthew J. Malloy, Susan A. McLaughlin, Erin C. Mullany, Christopher J. L. Murray, Erin M. O’Connell, Chukwuma Okereke, Reed J. D.
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    Ayaka Teshima, Anthony Laverty, Filippos Filippidis
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    Fatemeh Jabbari, Anoushiravan Mohseni Bandpei, Maryam S. Daneshpour, Abbas Shahsavani, Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari, Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar, Amir abbas Momenan, Fereidoun Azizi
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Prevalence of sexual experience among Korean adolescent: age-period-cohort analysis
Yongho Jee, Gyuyoung Lee
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020008.   Published online March 3, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020008
  • 13,081 View
  • 220 Download
  • 7 Web of Science
  • 6 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDF
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Since exposure to sexual content and early sexual initiation among adolescents have become serious social issues in Korea, an in-depth analysis of trends in the prevalence of sexual experience among Korean adolescents is necessary to project the trends and policies required for the next 10 years. The objective of this study was to identify the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort effects on the prevalence of sexual experience in Korean adolescents.
METHODS
We analyzed age-specific, period-specific, and birth cohort–specific trends in the prevalence of sexual experience among 911,502 adolescents (469,593 boys, 51.5%; 441,909 girls, 48.5%) aged 12 years to 17 years from the 2006 to 2017 Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to examine significant changes in the prevalence of sexual experience and to find the optimal number and location of places where trends changed.
RESULTS
The prevalence of sexual experience generally increased with age in all periods in both boys and girls. In boys, the prevalence of sexual experience increased in recent periods, especially in the age group of 12-13 years, while the prevalence of sexual experience decreased in the age group of 16-17 years. In girls, the age group of 12-13 years showed an increased prevalence of sexual experience in recent periods. However, the prevalence showed a decreasing trend in the age group of 16-17 years.
CONCLUSIONS
In boys and girls, sexual experience increased with age, although this tendency has slowed in recent cohorts. Therefore, early sex education is needed.
Summary
Korean summary
성경험 유병률은 일반적으로 남녀 공히 모든 시기에서 연령대에 따라 증가했다. 공통적으로 최근 연도에서 12-13세 연령군의 성 경험 유병률이 증가한 반면 16-17세 연령군에서 성경험 유병률이 감소했다. 전반적으로 2006 년부터 2017 년까지 청소년들의 성경험률은 소폭 감소했지만, 조기 성경험의 빈도는 증가하고 있다. 따라서 피임이나 순결 교육뿐만 아니라 성적자기결정능력같은 보다 실질적인 성교육이 어릴 때부터 강화되어야 할 것으로 보인다.

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    Jihye Choi, Seyoung Kim, Seung-Ju Lee, Sangrak Bae, Sooyoun Kim
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    Jihoon Kim, Yeungjeom Lee, Lindsay Leban, Wesley G. Jennings
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    Zhengyue Jing, Jie Li, Yi Wang, Chengchao Zhou
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    Jhosuny Perez-Fernandez, Diego O. Arroyo-Velasco, Mariella R. Huaman, Sarai G. Chavez-Bustamante, Anita P. Llamo-Vilcherrez, Carolina J. Delgado-Flores, Carlos J. Toro-Huamanchumo
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    Yuhang Fang, Yujia Zheng, Yan Jin, Chunyan Yu, Xiayun Zuo, Qiguo Lian, Chaohua Lou, Lihe Li, Ping Hong, Xiaowen Tu
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COVID-19: Special Article
Epidemiologic characteristics of early cases with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) disease in Korea
Moran Ki, Task Force for 2019-nCoV
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020007.   Published online February 9, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020007
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
In about 20 days since the diagnosis of the first case of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Korea on January 20, 2020, 28 cases have been confirmed. Fifteen patients (53.6%) of them were male and median age of was 42 years (range, 20-73). Of the confirmed cases, 16, 9, and 3 were index (57.2%), first-generation (32.1%), and second-generation (10.7%) cases, respectively. All first-generation and second-generation patients were family members or intimate acquaintances of the index cases with close contacts. Fifteen among 16 index patients had entered Korea from January 19 to 24, 2020 while 1 patient had entered Korea on January 31, 2020. The average incubation period was 3.9 days (median, 3.0), and the reproduction number was estimated as 0.48. Three of the confirmed patients were asymptomatic when they were diagnosed. Epidemiological indicators will be revised with the availability of additional data in the future. Sharing epidemiological information among researchers worldwide is essential for efficient preparation and response in tackling this new infectious disease.
Summary
Korean summary
2020년 1월 20일 한국의 신종코로나바이러스 감염자가 확진된 이후 약 20일만에 28명이 확진되었다. 확진자중 지표환자가 16명(57.2%), 1세대환자 9명(32.1%), 2세대환자가 3명(10.7%)이다. 지표환자 16명중 15명은 1월 19일-24일에, 1명은 1월 31일에 국내에 입국하였다. 환자들의 잠복기는 평균 3.9일 (중위값 3일), 감염재생산수(R)는 0.48로 추정되었다. 확진자 중 3명은 증상이 없는 상태에서 확진이 되었다. 향후 새로운 정보가 나오면 역학 지표들이 수정될 것이다.

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COVID-19: Brief Communication
An interim review of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus
Sukhyun Ryu, Byung Chul Chun, Korean Society of Epidemiology 2019-nCoV Task Force Team
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020006.   Published online February 6, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020006
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China is currently recognized as a public health emergency of global concern.
METHODS
We reviewed the currently available literature to provide up-to-date guidance on control measures to be implemented by public health authorities.
RESULTS
Some of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019-nCoV have been identified. However, there remain considerable uncertainties, which should be considered when providing guidance to public health authorities on control measures.
CONCLUSIONS
Additional studies incorporating more detailed information from confirmed cases would be valuable.
Summary
Korean summary
여러 국외 연구를 통해 2019 신종 코로나바이러스에 대한 역학적 특성이 보고되고 있다. 아직까지 지역사회 전파 예방 및 관리방안을 제시하기 위한 역학적 근거가 아직까지 밝혀지지 않은 부분이 많아 지속적인 추가 연구가 필요하다.

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