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COVID-19: Original Article
- Direct indicators of social distancing effectiveness in COVID-19 outbreak stages: a correlational analysis of case contacts and population mobility in Korea
- Sojin Choi, Chanhee Kim, Kun-Hee Park, Jong-Hun Kim
- Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023065. Published online July 10, 2023
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023065
- 1,781 View
- 107 Download
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Abstract
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AbstractOBJECTIVES
The effectiveness of social distancing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been evaluated using the magnitude of changes in population mobility. This study aimed to investigate a direct indicator—namely, the number of close contacts per patient with confirmed COVID-19.METHODSFrom week 7, 2020 to week 43, 2021, population movement changes were calculated from the data of two Korean telecommunication companies and Google in accordance with social distancing stringency levels. Data on confirmed cases and their close contacts among residents of Gyeonggi Province, Korea were combined at each stage. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to compare the movement data with the change in the number of contacts for each confirmed case calculated by stratification according to age group. The reference value of the population movement data was set using the value before mid-February 2020, considering each data’s characteristics.RESULTSIn the age group of 18 or younger, the number of close contacts per confirmed case decreased or increased when the stringency level was strengthened or relaxed, respectively. In adults, the correlation was relatively low, with no correlation between the change in the number of close contacts per confirmed case and the change in population movement after the commencement of vaccination for adults.CONCLUSIONSThe effectiveness of governmental social distancing policies against COVID-19 can be evaluated using the number of close contacts per confirmed case as a direct indicator, especially for each age group. Such an analysis can facilitate policy changes for specific groups. -
SummaryKorean summary
1. 사회적 거리두기의 효과를 간접적인 자료인 이동통신사와 구글데이터를 이용하여 인구 이동성 변화의 크기를 평가하였고, 직접적인 자료인 역학조사서의 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수를 산출하여 비교 평가하였다. 2. 18세 이하 연령대는 사회적 거리두기의 강화 또는 완화 단계에 따라 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수가 민감하게 변동되었으나, 성인의 경우에는 덜 민감하게 변동되었다. 3. 역학조사서에 기반하여 시계열 자료로 재가공한 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수는 사회적 거리두기 정책의 효과를 평가하는 직접적인 평가 지표로 사용될 수 있기에 충분히 검토되어야 한다.Key Message
1. The study assessed social distancing's effectiveness by analyzing population mobility changes through mobile operator and Google data. And it was also compared with the number of close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case based on the epidemiological survey report. 2. Younger age groups were more influenced by the social distancing policy in close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case than adults. 3. The study suggests using close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case from the epidemiological survey report as a direct measure of social distancing policy effectiveness.
COVID-19: Perspective
- COVID-19 outbreak, herd immunity formation, and future public health strategies
- Youngtaek Kim, Yoon Hyung Park
- Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021071. Published online September 16, 2021
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021071
- 7,341 View
- 203 Download
- 1 Web of Science
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Abstract
Summary
PDFSupplementary Material
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AbstractIn Korea, where the successful control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic have been implemented by the follow-up survey management (containment) of COVID-19-infected persons, the number of infected persons has increased rapidly, and a re-epidemic trend is emerging. The Korean government is strengthening epidemic prevention activities, such as increasing the social distance in the metropolitan area to four levels and increasing the vaccination rate. The public has been complaining of dissatisfaction with the atrophy of socioeconomic activities and of distrust of epidemic prevention policies. Australia started with an incidence similar to that of Korea, but its social activities are more flexible than those of Korea, where the incidence is maintained at approximately 0.1 per 100,000 people. In comparing the differences between both countries in terms of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker Stringency Index, it was found that Australia effectively regulates the number of infected cases by high-intensity intermittent mitigation and the subsequent allowance of social activities. Korea has also recommended a high-intensity intermittent mitigation policy as in Australia until community herd immunity via vaccination is formed.
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SummaryKorean summary
COVID-19 효과적으로 관리하는 방안으로 4-7일 정도의 강력한 통제(mitigation, Lock down)를 하여 감염량을 대폭 감소 시킨 후 2-3개월간 대폭 완화된 사회적 거리 두기를 시행하는 방안을 제안한다 완화된 사회적 거리 두기에는 마스크만 착용하고, 학생들의 등교, 음식점 등 모임, 예식 모임 등에 제한을 두지 않는 방안이다. 호주의 사례를 밴치마킹한 모형이다. 이와 함께 단기간에 많은 사람을 예방 접종하여 지역사회 면역력을 올려야 한다. 이를 위해 접종 시기를 늦추더라도 백신을 충분히 확보한 후 접종일 시작할 것을 권고한다.Key Message
The public has been complaining of dissatisfaction with the atrophy of socio-economic activities and of distrust of epidemic prevention policies. South Korea would change the COVID-19 prevention and control policies from November, 2021. Authors recommended a high-intensity intermittent mitigation and the subsequent allowance of social activities policy as in Australia until community herd immunity via vaccination is formed.
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